Williams provided the usual caveats regarding favorable data and confidence needed that the inflation target will be reached. Williams also echoed recent comments from the Fed that the pace of the tightening cycle isn't predetermined and will be completely data dependent. Watch is nothing new in the report and it is unlikely going to alter in any way Fed expectations that have turned decidedly in favor of a December hike. The data was collected before the FOMC Minutes were released on Wednesday and didn't capture a positive mood change brought about by the dovish forward guidance contained in the Minutes. EM equities made strong gains late last week - in part due to the extreme oversold conditions as portrayed in the BAML flow report using EPFR data. The iShares Emerging Market ETF ended the week with a strong 4. The BAML data also showed investors bailed out of US equities with outflows of US 1. Key US data in the week ahead Due to Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday in the US - all of the key data will be released Monday through Wednesday. Monday kicks off with US Existing Home Sales followed on Tuesday by Forex second estimate US GDP - which will probably be the data highlight of the week. The first estimate came in at a disappointing 1. On Wednesday the Fed's favorite inflation gauge - Core PCE Price Index will be released along with Durable Goods, Monthly House prices and Univ of Mich consumer sentiment. Key global data in the week ahead It will be a fairly busy week for EZ data starting with Flash PMI on Monday followed on Tuesday by German GDP and the closely watched German IFO. It then goes pretty quiet until Friday when EZ sentiment data is released. The highlight of the UK calendar will be UK second estimate Q3 GDP on Friday with the market expecting plus 0. Most of Japan's data will be released on Friday when the keenly watched CPI will be released along with Japan unemployment and Foreign Bond Investment. There isn't any China data out this week. The main event in Australia will be Thursday's Q3 CAPEX. The only other data out of Australia is Construction Work Done on Wednesday. The AUD is benefitting in from shifting central bank expectations, as the market "prices out" possible RBA rate cuts in the coming months - while at the same time the Fed is signaling a very cautious approach to Fed rate hikes beyond the expected rate hike in December. The AUD is also benefitting from EUR-funded carry trade demand, as short-term bund yields slip further into negative territory - and benefitting from short covering in emerging market assets and currencies. The EUR and CHF were the worst performing currencies last week, as the ECB continues to signal additional easing when they ifr in early December. The German DAX gained 0. The French CAC closed slightly lower on Friday minus 0. It was the lowest weekly close since May Iron ore edged 0. Gold closed down five bucks at 1, and for the week it lost six bucks or 0. The MSCI LATAM Equity Index gained 0. The MXN and BRL made gains of between 0. The 2-year German bund yield fell to a fresh closing low at minus 0. In contrast - the 2-year US Treasury yield rose 3 BPS to 0. The CAD is also being undermined by the volatile oil price markets concerns NYMEX Crude will fall and stay below 40 USD for awhile. Markets CAD fell 1. The dovish forward guidance contained in the Fed minutes from the October meeting led to yield flattening strategies - resulting in the year Treasury yield slipping 2 BPs last week despite rising 2 BPs on Friday to 2. Wrap up As of Sunday afternoon Sydney time - there wasn't any news of note out over the weekend - so it might be a quiet start to the week. It will be interesting to see whether or not the short covering rally in some risk assets and risk currencies continues in the week ahead. EM assets and currencies ended the week on a forex note and Wall Street had a banner week after looking vulnerable for a extended slide heading into next month's Fed meeting. The AUD performed exceedingly well despite key commodities slumping and looking just plain awful from a technical perspective. The main reason for the rally is some of the risk assets was the FOMC Minutes released on Wednesday clearly indicating that while a Fed hike in December was likely - the slope of the tightening cycle would be unusually flat unless the economic landscape improved significantly. The global growth picture remains sluggish and there is plenty of uncertainty regarding China's growth path in the months ahead. Ifr once the short covering rally in EM and AUD results in better balanced positioning - there should be good selling opportunities. If commodities were to correct higher in the weeks ahead - the rally in EM and AUD might extend for a while, but the medium-term outlook for key commodities such watch copper, crude and iron ore remains bleak. If the AUD settles closer to 0. Nevertheless - last week's price action was positive and the close above the day MA at 2, has relieved the downward pressure built up in the previous week. Resistance is found at the Nov 3 trend high at 2, while major resistance is found at the May 20 all-time high at 2, A break above 2, would likely signal the trend higher has resumed. It also broke above the This would be confirmed by a break and close above the day MA at 5, The trend is steep and extended - so a move back above the day MA at 1, would warn that a decent correction might be underway. There is minor support at a trend high at 1, while the longer term objective of this move iswhich is the fibo of the multi-year low made in late and the all-time high at 1, made in 2, The price is resting above key support at the July 8 trend low at A break above the day MA at The price is having trouble moving markets the 5-day MA and hasn't come close to threatening the day moving average Nov 5 when the price was above 5, Support is found at the A close below that level would be extremely bearish with no decent support this side of 3, The objective of this move is the Aug 24th trend low at A break below A break back above the day MA at Watch is minor support at last week's trend low at 1. Strong resistance has formed at 1. The 5, 10 ifr day moving averages are aligned in a bullish formation and pointing higher. Support has formed at There is strong resistance at various weekly highs between A break below the day MA at 0. 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Fed's low rates a nail in dollar's coffin: IFR Markets
Fed's low rates a nail in dollar's coffin: IFR Markets
Z.-L. Yang, R.E. Dickinson, A. Hahmann, G.-Y. Niu, M. Shaikh X. Gao, R.C. Bales, S. Sorooshian and J.
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